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and (min-device-pixel-ratio: 2),(max-width: 599px) and (min-resolution: 2dppx),(max-width: 599px) and (min-resolution: 192dpi)\" srcSet=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2025\/03\/07\/multimedia\/07biz-econ-outlook-qgpv\/07biz-econ-outlook-qgpv-mobileMasterAt3x.jpg?quality=75&amp;auto=webp&amp;disable=upscale&amp;width=1200\"\/><source media=\"(max-width: 599px) and (min-device-pixel-ratio: 1),(max-width: 599px) and (min-resolution: 1dppx),(max-width: 599px) and (min-resolution: 96dpi)\" srcSet=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2025\/03\/07\/multimedia\/07biz-econ-outlook-qgpv\/07biz-econ-outlook-qgpv-mobileMasterAt3x.jpg?quality=75&amp;auto=webp&amp;disable=upscale&amp;width=600\"\/><img alt=\"President Trump stands at the top of a stairway as he exits the presidential plane. He is holding his right fist aloft and wearing a hat that says, \u201cMake America Great Again.\u201d\" class=\"css-rq4mmj\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2025\/03\/07\/multimedia\/07biz-econ-outlook-qgpv\/07biz-econ-outlook-qgpv-articleLarge.jpg?quality=75&amp;auto=webp&amp;disable=upscale\" srcSet=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2025\/03\/07\/multimedia\/07biz-econ-outlook-qgpv\/07biz-econ-outlook-qgpv-articleLarge.jpg?quality=75&amp;auto=webp 600w,https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2025\/03\/07\/multimedia\/07biz-econ-outlook-qgpv\/07biz-econ-outlook-qgpv-jumbo.jpg?quality=75&amp;auto=webp 1024w,https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2025\/03\/07\/multimedia\/07biz-econ-outlook-qgpv\/07biz-econ-outlook-qgpv-superJumbo.jpg?quality=75&amp;auto=webp 2048w\" sizes=\"((min-width: 600px) and (max-width: 1004px)) 84vw, (min-width: 1005px) 60vw, 100vw\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"600\" height=\"400\"\/><\/picture><\/div><figcaption data-testid=\"photoviewer-children-ImageCaption\" class=\"css-ktho12 e3rygrp0\"><span class=\"css-jevhma e13ogyst0\">Economic analysts have scaled back their forecasts because of President Trump\u2019s policies and the uncertainty they have created.<\/span><span class=\"css-14fe1uy e1z0qqy90\"><span class=\"css-1ly73wi e1tej78p0\">Credit...<\/span><span><span aria-hidden=\"false\">Haiyun Jiang for The New York Times<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div><div class=\"css-p6m5rf\"><div class=\"byline-container css-fowuij epjyd6m2\"><div class=\"css-1jgcahq ey68jwv0\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/by\/ben-casselman\" class=\"css-uwwqev\"><img alt=\"Ben Casselman\" title=\"Ben Casselman\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2018\/11\/09\/multimedia\/author-ben-casselman\/author-ben-casselman-thumbLarge.png\" class=\"css-dc6zx6 ey68jwv2\"\/><\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/by\/colby-smith\" class=\"css-uwwqev\"><img alt=\"Colby Smith\" title=\"Colby Smith\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2025\/01\/29\/business\/author_colby_smith\/author_colby_smith-thumbLarge.png\" class=\"css-dc6zx6 ey68jwv2\"\/><\/a><\/div><div class=\"css-233int epjyd6m1\"><p class=\"css-4anu6l e1jsehar1\"><span class=\"byline-prefix\">By <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/by\/ben-casselman\" class=\"css-ojhyzr e1jsehar0\" itemProp=\"name\">Ben Casselman<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/by\/colby-smith\" class=\"last-byline css-ojhyzr e1jsehar0\" itemProp=\"name\">Colby Smith<\/a><\/p><div class=\"css-lsim6h epjyd6m0\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"css-1c72mta\"><time class=\"css-kx0gap e16638kd0\" dateTime=\"2025-03-07T05:04:22-05:00\">March 7, 2025, <span class=\"css-epvm6\">5:04 a.m. ET<\/span><\/time><\/div><\/header><section name=\"articleBody\" class=\"meteredContent css-1r7ky0e\"><div class=\"css-s99gbd StoryBodyCompanionColumn\" data-testid=\"companionColumn-0\"><div class=\"css-53u6y8\"><p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">President Trump inherited an economy that was, by most conventional measures, firing on all cylinders. Wages, consumer spending and corporate profits were rising. Unemployment was low. The inflation rate, though higher than normal, was falling.<\/p><p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Just weeks into Mr. Trump\u2019s term, the outlook is gloomier. Measures of business and consumer confidence have plunged. The stock market has been on a roller-coaster ride. Layoffs are picking up, according to <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.challengergray.com\/blog\/job-cuts-surge-on-doge-actions-retail-woes-highest-monthly-total-since-july-2020\/\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">some data<\/a>. And forecasters are cutting their estimates for economic growth this year, with some even predicting that the U.S. gross domestic product could shrink in the first quarter.<\/p><p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Some commentators have gone further, arguing that the economy could be headed for a recession, a sharp rebound in inflation or even the dreaded combination of the two, \u201cstagflation.\u201d Most economists consider that unlikely, saying growth is more likely to slow than to give way to a decline.<\/p><p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Still, the sudden deterioration in the outlook is striking, especially because it is almost entirely a result of Mr. Trump\u2019s policies and the resulting uncertainty. Tariffs, and the inevitable retaliation from trading partners, will increase prices and slow down growth. Federal job cuts will push up unemployment, and could lead government employees and contractors to pull back on spending while they wait to learn their fate. Deportations could drive up costs for industries like construction and hospitality that depend on immigrant labor.<\/p><\/div><aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"><\/aside><\/div><div data-testid=\"Dropzone-1\"><\/div><div class=\"css-s99gbd StoryBodyCompanionColumn\" data-testid=\"companionColumn-1\"><div class=\"css-53u6y8\"><p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cIf the economy was starting out in quite good shape, it\u2019s probably in less good shape after what we\u2019ve seen the last few weeks,\u201d said Donald Rissmiller, chief economist at Strategas, a research firm.<\/p><h2 class=\"css-13o6u42 eoo0vm40\" id=\"link-3a289576\">A Strong Foundation<\/h2><p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The U.S. economy has repeatedly shown its resilience in recent years, and there are parts of Mr. Trump\u2019s agenda that could foster growth. Business groups have responded enthusiastically to Republican plans to cut taxes and reduce regulation. 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stands at the top of a stairway as he exits the presidential plane. 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Wages, consumer spending and corporate profits were rising. Unemployment was low. The inflation rate, though higher than normal, was falling.\"}],\"textAlign\":\"LEFT\"},{\"__typename\":\"Dropzone\",\"adsDesktop\":false,\"adsDesktopHoldout\":false,\"adsHybrid\":false,\"adsMobile\":false,\"adsMobileHoldout\":false,\"bad\":false,\"index\":0},{\"__typename\":\"ParagraphBlock\",\"content\":[{\"__typename\":\"TextInline\",\"formats\":[],\"text\":\"Just weeks into Mr. Trump\u2019s term, the outlook is gloomier. Measures of business and consumer confidence have plunged. The stock market has been on a roller-coaster ride. Layoffs are picking up, according to \"},{\"__typename\":\"TextInline\",\"formats\":[{\"__typename\":\"LinkFormat\",\"title\":\"\",\"uri\":null,\"url\":\"https:\\u002F\\u002Fwww.challengergray.com\\u002Fblog\\u002Fjob-cuts-surge-on-doge-actions-retail-woes-highest-monthly-total-since-july-2020\\u002F\"}],\"text\":\"some data\"},{\"__typename\":\"TextInline\",\"formats\":[],\"text\":\". And forecasters are cutting their estimates for economic growth this year, with some even predicting that the U.S. gross domestic product could shrink in the first quarter.\"}],\"textAlign\":\"LEFT\"},{\"__typename\":\"Dropzone\",\"adsDesktop\":false,\"adsDesktopHoldout\":false,\"adsHybrid\":false,\"adsMobile\":false,\"adsMobileHoldout\":false,\"bad\":false,\"index\":1},{\"__typename\":\"ParagraphBlock\",\"content\":[{\"__typename\":\"TextInline\",\"formats\":[],\"text\":\"Some commentators have gone further, arguing that the economy could be headed for a recession, a sharp rebound in inflation or even the dreaded combination of the two, \u201cstagflation.\u201d Most economists consider that unlikely, saying growth is more likely to slow than to give way to a decline.\"}],\"textAlign\":\"LEFT\"},{\"__typename\":\"Dropzone\",\"adsDesktop\":false,\"adsDesktopHoldout\":false,\"adsHybrid\":false,\"adsMobile\":false,\"adsMobileHoldout\":true,\"bad\":false,\"index\":2},{\"__typename\":\"ParagraphBlock\",\"content\":[{\"__typename\":\"TextInline\",\"formats\":[],\"text\":\"Still, the sudden deterioration in the outlook is striking, especially because it is almost entirely a result of Mr. Trump\u2019s policies and the resulting uncertainty. Tariffs, and the inevitable retaliation from trading partners, will increase prices and slow down growth. Federal job cuts will push up unemployment, and could lead government employees and contractors to pull back on spending while they wait to learn their fate. Deportations could drive up costs for industries like construction and hospitality that depend on immigrant labor.\"}],\"textAlign\":\"LEFT\"},{\"__typename\":\"Dropzone\",\"adsDesktop\":true,\"adsDesktopHoldout\":true,\"adsHybrid\":true,\"adsMobile\":true,\"adsMobileHoldout\":false,\"bad\":false,\"index\":3},{\"__typename\":\"ParagraphBlock\",\"content\":[{\"__typename\":\"TextInline\",\"formats\":[],\"text\":\"\u201cIf the economy was starting out in quite good shape, it\u2019s probably in less good shape after what we\u2019ve seen the last few weeks,\u201d said Donald Rissmiller, chief economist at Strategas, a research firm.\"}],\"textAlign\":\"LEFT\"},{\"__typename\":\"Dropzone\",\"adsDesktop\":false,\"adsDesktopHoldout\":false,\"adsHybrid\":false,\"adsMobile\":false,\"adsMobileHoldout\":false,\"bad\":false,\"index\":4},{\"__typename\":\"Heading2Block\",\"content\":[{\"__typename\":\"TextInline\",\"formats\":[],\"text\":\"A Strong Foundation\"}],\"textAlign\":\"LEFT\"},{\"__typename\":\"ParagraphBlock\",\"content\":[{\"__typename\":\"TextInline\",\"formats\":[],\"text\":\"The U.S. economy has repeatedly shown its resilience in recent years, and there are parts of Mr. Trump\u2019s agenda that could foster growth. Business groups have responded enthusiastically to Republican plans to cut taxes and reduce regulation. A streamlined government could, in theory, make the overall economy more productive.\"}],\"textAlign\":\"LEFT\"},{\"__typename\":\"Dropzone\",\"adsDesktop\":false,\"adsDesktopHoldout\":false,\"adsHybrid\":false,\"adsMobile\":false,\"adsMobileHoldout\":false,\"bad\":false,\"index\":5},{\"__typename\":\"ParagraphBlock\",\"content\":[{\"__typename\":\"TextInline\",\"formats\":[],\"text\":\"So far, however, the Trump administration\u2019s approach to economic policy has been characterized more by chaos \u2014 tariffs that are announced and then delayed, government workers who are fired and rehired \u2014 than by careful planning.\"}],\"textAlign\":\"LEFT\"},{\"__typename\":\"Dropzone\",\"adsDesktop\":false,\"adsDesktopHoldout\":false,\"adsHybrid\":false,\"adsMobile\":false,\"adsMobileHoldout\":true,\"bad\":false,\"index\":6},{\"__typename\":\"ParagraphBlock\",\"content\":[{\"__typename\":\"TextInline\",\"formats\":[],\"text\":\"Michael R. Strain, an economist at the conservative American Enterprise Institute, said Mr. Trump\u2019s policies on trade and immigration, and his slash-and-burn approach to federal job cuts, would have a damaging effect.\"}],\"textAlign\":\"LEFT\"},{\"__typename\":\"Dropzone\",\"adsDesktop\":false,\"adsDesktopHoldout\":false,\"adsHybrid\":true,\"adsMobile\":true,\"adsMobileHoldout\":false,\"bad\":false,\"index\":7},{\"__typename\":\"ParagraphBlock\",\"content\":[{\"__typename\":\"TextInline\",\"formats\":[],\"text\":\"\u201cWhat President Trump has proposed will not cause a recession,\u201d he continued. \u201cBut it will slow economic growth. It will take money out of people\u2019s pockets. It will increase the unemployment rate. It will cost people jobs. It will make American businesses less competitive.\u201d\"}],\"textAlign\":\"LEFT\"},{\"__typename\":\"Dropzone\",\"adsDesktop\":true,\"adsDesktopHoldout\":true,\"adsHybrid\":false,\"adsMobile\":false,\"adsMobileHoldout\":false,\"bad\":false,\"index\":8},{\"__typename\":\"Heading2Block\",\"content\":[{\"__typename\":\"TextInline\",\"formats\":[],\"text\":\"\u2018Death by a Thousand Paper Cuts\u2019\"}],\"textAlign\":\"LEFT\"},{\"__typename\":\"ParagraphBlock\",\"content\":[{\"__typename\":\"TextInline\",\"formats\":[],\"text\":\"It is certainly possible for Mr. Trump\u2019s policies to come together in a way that causes a recession. His tariffs alone could shave a full percentage point off growth in gross domestic product this year, according to \"},{\"__typename\":\"TextInline\",\"formats\":[{\"__typename\":\"LinkFormat\",\"title\":\"\",\"uri\":null,\"url\":\"https:\\u002F\\u002Fbudgetlab.yale.edu\\u002Fresearch\\u002Ffiscal-economic-and-distributional-effects-illustrative-reciprocal-us-tariffs\"}],\"text\":\"some economic models\"},{\"__typename\":\"TextInline\",\"formats\":[],\"text\":\" \u2014 enough to cut in half the 2 percent growth rate that economists expected going into this year.\"}],\"textAlign\":\"LEFT\"},{\"__typename\":\"Dropzone\",\"adsDesktop\":false,\"adsDesktopHoldout\":false,\"adsHybrid\":false,\"adsMobile\":false,\"adsMobileHoldout\":false,\"bad\":false,\"index\":9},{\"__typename\":\"ParagraphBlock\",\"content\":[{\"__typename\":\"TextInline\",\"formats\":[],\"text\":\"Many economists contend that deporting millions of immigrants \u2014 as Mr. Trump promised to do on the campaign trail last year \u2014 could be even more harmful than tariffs, given the U.S. economy\u2019s need for workers, particularly in industries like construction and health care.\"}],\"textAlign\":\"LEFT\"},{\"__typename\":\"Dropzone\",\"adsDesktop\":false,\"adsDesktopHoldout\":false,\"adsHybrid\":false,\"adsMobile\":false,\"adsMobileHoldout\":true,\"bad\":false,\"index\":10},{\"__typename\":\"ParagraphBlock\",\"content\":[{\"__typename\":\"TextInline\",\"formats\":[],\"text\":\"And the administration\u2019s push to shrink the federal government, an effort led by Elon Musk, could leave hundreds of thousands of federal workers and government contractors looking for jobs when hiring has slowed. That could set off a chain reaction: Workers who lose jobs, or worry they might, would pull back on spending, which would force businesses to cut costs, leading to more layoffs and further reductions in spending.\"}],\"textAlign\":\"LEFT\"},{\"__typename\":\"Dropzone\",\"adsDesktop\":false,\"adsDesktopHoldout\":false,\"adsHybrid\":true,\"adsMobile\":true,\"adsMobileHoldout\":false,\"bad\":false,\"index\":11},{\"__typename\":\"ParagraphBlock\",\"content\":[{\"__typename\":\"TextInline\",\"formats\":[],\"text\":\"Ordinarily, that would prompt the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates and shore up the economy. 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Deportations could drive up costs in industries that rely on immigrant labor.\"},\"credit\":\"Daniele Volpe for The New York Times\",\"crops\":[{\"__typename\":\"ImageCrop\",\"renditions\":[{\"__typename\":\"ImageRendition\",\"height\":400,\"name\":\"articleLarge\",\"url\":\"https:\\u002F\\u002Fstatic01.nyt.com\\u002Fimages\\u002F2025\\u002F03\\u002F07\\u002Fmultimedia\\u002F07biz-econ-outlook-whgq\\u002F07biz-econ-outlook-whgq-articleLarge.jpg\",\"width\":600},{\"__typename\":\"ImageRendition\",\"height\":433,\"name\":\"popup\",\"url\":\"https:\\u002F\\u002Fstatic01.nyt.com\\u002Fimages\\u002F2025\\u002F03\\u002F07\\u002Fmultimedia\\u002F07biz-econ-outlook-whgq\\u002F07biz-econ-outlook-whgq-popup.jpg\",\"width\":650},{\"__typename\":\"ImageRendition\",\"height\":683,\"name\":\"jumbo\",\"url\":\"https:\\u002F\\u002Fstatic01.nyt.com\\u002Fimages\\u002F2025\\u002F03\\u002F07\\u002Fmultimedia\\u002F07biz-econ-outlook-whgq\\u002F07biz-econ-outlook-whgq-jumbo.jpg\",\"width\":1024},{\"__typename\":\"ImageRendition\",\"height\":1365,\"name\":\"superJumbo\",\"url\":\"https:\\u002F\\u002Fstatic01.nyt.com\\u002Fimages\\u002F2025\\u002F03\\u002F07\\u002Fmultimedia\\u002F07biz-econ-outlook-whgq\\u002F07biz-econ-outlook-whgq-superJumbo.jpg\",\"width\":2048}]},{\"__typename\":\"ImageCrop\",\"renditions\":[{\"__typename\":\"ImageRendition\",\"height\":150,\"name\":\"thumbLarge\",\"url\":\"https:\\u002F\\u002Fstatic01.nyt.com\\u002Fimages\\u002F2025\\u002F03\\u002F07\\u002Fmultimedia\\u002F07biz-econ-outlook-whgq\\u002F07biz-econ-outlook-whgq-thumbLarge.jpg\",\"width\":150}]},{\"__typename\":\"ImageCrop\",\"renditions\":[{\"__typename\":\"ImageRendition\",\"height\":127,\"name\":\"articleInline\",\"url\":\"https:\\u002F\\u002Fstatic01.nyt.com\\u002Fimages\\u002F2025\\u002F03\\u002F07\\u002Fmultimedia\\u002F07biz-econ-outlook-whgq\\u002F07biz-econ-outlook-whgq-articleInline.jpg\",\"width\":190}]},{\"__typename\":\"ImageCrop\",\"renditions\":[{\"__typename\":\"ImageRendition\",\"height\":1800,\"name\":\"mobileMasterAt3x\",\"url\":\"https:\\u002F\\u002Fstatic01.nyt.com\\u002Fimages\\u002F2025\\u002F03\\u002F07\\u002Fmultimedia\\u002F07biz-econ-outlook-whgq\\u002F07biz-econ-outlook-whgq-mobileMasterAt3x.jpg\",\"width\":1800}]}],\"id\":\"SW1hZ2U6bnl0Oi8vaW1hZ2UvZjk0OWRmYTQtNDBhYy01ZDUxLWI1ZjAtODIwZWQ5OWY0MzA0\",\"imageType\":\"photo\",\"legacyHtmlCaption\":\"Deportees from the United States arriving in Guatemala in January. Deportations could drive up costs in industries that rely on immigrant labor.\",\"timesTags\":[],\"uri\":\"nyt:\\u002F\\u002Fimage\\u002Ff949dfa4-40ac-5d51-b5f0-820ed99f4304\",\"url\":\"\\u002Fimagepages\\u002F2025\\u002F03\\u002F07\\u002Fmultimedia\\u002F07biz-econ-outlook-whgq.html\"},\"size\":\"MEDIUM\"},{\"__typename\":\"Dropzone\",\"adsDesktop\":false,\"adsDesktopHoldout\":false,\"adsHybrid\":false,\"adsMobile\":false,\"adsMobileHoldout\":false,\"bad\":true,\"index\":13},{\"__typename\":\"ParagraphBlock\",\"content\":[{\"__typename\":\"TextInline\",\"formats\":[],\"text\":\"\u201cIt\u2019s a death by a thousand paper cuts,\u201d said Jay Bryson, chief economist for Wells Fargo. \u201cAll these things individually aren\u2019t enough to cause a recession, but if you layer them on top of one another, it might be.\u201d\"}],\"textAlign\":\"LEFT\"},{\"__typename\":\"Dropzone\",\"adsDesktop\":false,\"adsDesktopHoldout\":true,\"adsHybrid\":false,\"adsMobile\":false,\"adsMobileHoldout\":true,\"bad\":false,\"index\":14},{\"__typename\":\"ParagraphBlock\",\"content\":[{\"__typename\":\"TextInline\",\"formats\":[],\"text\":\"Most economists think such an outcome is relatively unlikely, however. Mr. Trump has repeatedly delayed full enforcement of his promised tariffs, for example \u2014 on Thursday, he suspended tariffs on most imports from Mexico and Canada until April. His deportation efforts have likewise \"},{\"__typename\":\"TextInline\",\"formats\":[{\"__typename\":\"LinkFormat\",\"title\":\"\",\"uri\":null,\"url\":\"https:\\u002F\\u002Fwww.nytimes.com\\u002F2025\\u002F03\\u002F05\\u002Fus\\u002Fpolitics\\u002Ftrump-immigration-deportations-arrests.html\"}],\"text\":\"gotten off to a slow start\"},{\"__typename\":\"TextInline\",\"formats\":[],\"text\":\". And some of the cuts to the federal work force have been tied up in court.\"}],\"textAlign\":\"LEFT\"},{\"__typename\":\"Dropzone\",\"adsDesktop\":true,\"adsDesktopHoldout\":false,\"adsHybrid\":true,\"adsMobile\":true,\"adsMobileHoldout\":false,\"bad\":false,\"index\":15},{\"__typename\":\"ParagraphBlock\",\"content\":[{\"__typename\":\"TextInline\",\"formats\":[],\"text\":\"Such delays and reversals will help blunt the impact of Mr. Trump\u2019s policies, and could make a recession less likely, at least in the short term. But the \"},{\"__typename\":\"TextInline\",\"formats\":[{\"__typename\":\"LinkFormat\",\"title\":\"\",\"uri\":null,\"url\":\"https:\\u002F\\u002Fwww.nytimes.com\\u002F2025\\u002F02\\u002F15\\u002Fbusiness\\u002Feconomy\\u002Fbusiness-uncertainty-economic-policy.html\"}],\"text\":\"prolonged uncertainty could have its own costs\"},{\"__typename\":\"TextInline\",\"formats\":[],\"text\":\", leading businesses to delay investment and hiring decisions.\"}],\"textAlign\":\"LEFT\"},{\"__typename\":\"Dropzone\",\"adsDesktop\":false,\"adsDesktopHoldout\":false,\"adsHybrid\":false,\"adsMobile\":false,\"adsMobileHoldout\":false,\"bad\":false,\"index\":16},{\"__typename\":\"ParagraphBlock\",\"content\":[{\"__typename\":\"TextInline\",\"formats\":[],\"text\":\"\u201cIf we don\u2019t get clarity by the back half of this year, economic uncertainty can be like a deer in the headlights,\u201d said Nancy Lazar, chief global economist at the investment bank Piper Sandler. \u201cThings just stop. Business confidence is muted, employment is muted, and capital spending is put on hold.\u201d\"}],\"textAlign\":\"LEFT\"},{\"__typename\":\"Dropzone\",\"adsDesktop\":false,\"adsDesktopHoldout\":false,\"adsHybrid\":false,\"adsMobile\":false,\"adsMobileHoldout\":false,\"bad\":false,\"index\":17},{\"__typename\":\"Heading2Block\",\"content\":[{\"__typename\":\"TextInline\",\"formats\":[],\"text\":\"Long-Term Costs\"}],\"textAlign\":\"LEFT\"},{\"__typename\":\"ParagraphBlock\",\"content\":[{\"__typename\":\"TextInline\",\"formats\":[],\"text\":\"Even if Mr. Trump\u2019s policies don\u2019t cause a recession, they could do long-term damage. Lower immigration will leave the country with a smaller labor force as the native-born population is aging. Trade barriers will be a relatively modest drag on growth while in place \u2014 a chronic condition, rather than an acute one.\"}],\"textAlign\":\"LEFT\"},{\"__typename\":\"Dropzone\",\"adsDesktop\":false,\"adsDesktopHoldout\":true,\"adsHybrid\":false,\"adsMobile\":false,\"adsMobileHoldout\":true,\"bad\":false,\"index\":18},{\"__typename\":\"ParagraphBlock\",\"content\":[{\"__typename\":\"TextInline\",\"formats\":[],\"text\":\"\u201cIt\u2019s less like the economy is in a car wreck, and it\u2019s more like the economy has decided to start smoking a pack a day,\u201d said Michael Madowitz, an economist at the Roosevelt Institute, a progressive group.\"}],\"textAlign\":\"LEFT\"},{\"__typename\":\"Dropzone\",\"adsDesktop\":false,\"adsDesktopHoldout\":false,\"adsHybrid\":true,\"adsMobile\":true,\"adsMobileHoldout\":false,\"bad\":false,\"index\":19},{\"__typename\":\"ParagraphBlock\",\"content\":[{\"__typename\":\"TextInline\",\"formats\":[],\"text\":\"In certain places and for certain groups, the consequences could be harder to ignore. Veterans, who make up a disproportionate share of federal workers, could be particularly hard hit by government layoffs. So could parts of the country that depend heavily on federal jobs: Already, there are signs that home prices in the Washington metropolitan area are falling.\"}],\"textAlign\":\"LEFT\"},{\"__typename\":\"Dropzone\",\"adsDesktop\":false,\"adsDesktopHoldout\":false,\"adsHybrid\":false,\"adsMobile\":false,\"adsMobileHoldout\":false,\"bad\":false,\"index\":20},{\"__typename\":\"ParagraphBlock\",\"content\":[{\"__typename\":\"TextInline\",\"formats\":[],\"text\":\"\u201cIt\u2019s going to be substantial for certain communities,\u201d said Gbenga Ajilore, chief economist for the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, a liberal think tank. \u201cWhen you look at the aggregate, you miss a lot of underlying 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