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These Experts Gamed It Out.<\/h1><\/div><p id=\"article-summary\" class=\"css-79rysd e1wiw3jv0\">The publication of the detailed analysis was a sign that a cease-fire has gone from a theoretical exercise to an urgent and practical issue.<\/p><div class=\"css-qznc1j\"><div class=\"css-1q4bl9o\"><div class=\"css-1von7hd\"><audio preload=\"metadata\" src=\"https:\/\/static.nytimes.com\/narrated-articles\/synthetic\/article-9ff7ed05-521a-5098-9da2-11309888a5d0\/job-1741496496677\/article-9ff7ed05-521a-5098-9da2-11309888a5d0-job-1741496496677.mp3\" type=\"audio\/mpeg\"><\/audio><div class=\"css-b8gc4a\"><div class=\"css-79elbk\"><button type=\"button\" class=\"css-1xny6fl\" aria-label=\"Listen to article\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"css-3pg3bk\" id=\"playIcon\" width=\"55\" height=\"55\" viewBox=\"0 0 55 55\" fill=\"none\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\"><path class=\"css-1wy7vlv\" fill-rule=\"evenodd\" clip-rule=\"evenodd\" d=\"M22 38L37 28L22 18V38Z\"><\/path><path 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data-testid=\"imageblock-wrapper\"><figure class=\"sizeLarge layoutHorizontal css-nlqgyf\" aria-label=\"media\" role=\"group\"><div class=\"css-1xb94ky\" data-testid=\"imageContainer-children-Image\"><picture><source media=\"(max-width: 599px) and (min-device-pixel-ratio: 3),(max-width: 599px) and (min-resolution: 3dppx),(max-width: 599px) and (min-resolution: 288dpi)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2025\/03\/07\/multimedia\/00russia-ukraine-ceasefire-02-vthl\/00russia-ukraine-ceasefire-02-vthl-mobileMasterAt3x.jpg?quality=75&amp;auto=webp&amp;disable=upscale&amp;width=1800\"><source media=\"(max-width: 599px) and (min-device-pixel-ratio: 2),(max-width: 599px) and (min-resolution: 2dppx),(max-width: 599px) and (min-resolution: 192dpi)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2025\/03\/07\/multimedia\/00russia-ukraine-ceasefire-02-vthl\/00russia-ukraine-ceasefire-02-vthl-mobileMasterAt3x.jpg?quality=75&amp;auto=webp&amp;disable=upscale&amp;width=1200\"><source media=\"(max-width: 599px) and (min-device-pixel-ratio: 1),(max-width: 599px) and (min-resolution: 1dppx),(max-width: 599px) and (min-resolution: 96dpi)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2025\/03\/07\/multimedia\/00russia-ukraine-ceasefire-02-vthl\/00russia-ukraine-ceasefire-02-vthl-mobileMasterAt3x.jpg?quality=75&amp;auto=webp&amp;disable=upscale&amp;width=600\"><img alt=\"A Ukrainian soldier stands under a netted canopy next to a British-made howitzer. \" class=\"css-rq4mmj\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2025\/03\/07\/multimedia\/00russia-ukraine-ceasefire-02-vthl\/00russia-ukraine-ceasefire-02-vthl-articleLarge.jpg?quality=75&amp;auto=webp&amp;disable=upscale\" srcset=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2025\/03\/07\/multimedia\/00russia-ukraine-ceasefire-02-vthl\/00russia-ukraine-ceasefire-02-vthl-articleLarge.jpg?quality=75&amp;auto=webp 600w,https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2025\/03\/07\/multimedia\/00russia-ukraine-ceasefire-02-vthl\/00russia-ukraine-ceasefire-02-vthl-jumbo.jpg?quality=75&amp;auto=webp 1024w,https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2025\/03\/07\/multimedia\/00russia-ukraine-ceasefire-02-vthl\/00russia-ukraine-ceasefire-02-vthl-superJumbo.jpg?quality=75&amp;auto=webp 2048w\" sizes=\"((min-width: 600px) and (max-width: 1004px)) 84vw, (min-width: 1005px) 80vw, 100vw\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"600\" height=\"400\"><\/picture><\/div><figcaption data-testid=\"photoviewer-children-ImageCaption\" class=\"css-ktho12 e3rygrp0\"><span class=\"css-jevhma e13ogyst0\">A member of Ukraine\u2019s 79th Air Assault Brigade firing toward Russian forces near Marinka, Ukraine, last year.<\/span><span class=\"css-14fe1uy e1z0qqy90\"><span class=\"css-1ly73wi e1tej78p0\">Credit...<\/span><span><span aria-hidden=\"false\">Tyler Hicks\/The New York Times<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div><div class=\"css-p6m5rf\"><div class=\"byline-container css-1u5onbp epjyd6m2\"><div class=\"css-165eim7 ey68jwv0\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/by\/anton-troianovski\" class=\"css-uwwqev\"><img alt=\"Anton Troianovski\" title=\"Anton Troianovski\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2019\/09\/24\/reader-center\/author-anton-troianovski\/author-anton-troianovski-thumbLarge.png\" class=\"css-dc6zx6 ey68jwv2\"><\/a><\/div><div class=\"css-233int epjyd6m1\"><p class=\"css-4anu6l e1jsehar1\"><span class=\"byline-prefix\">By <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/by\/anton-troianovski\" class=\"last-byline css-ojhyzr e1jsehar0\" itemprop=\"name\">Anton Troianovski<\/a><\/p><div class=\"css-gqryk5 epjyd6m0\"><div id=\"enhanced-byline\" class=\"css-8atqhb\"><p class=\"css-1hyokyd e1wtpvyy0\">Reporting from Berlin<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"css-1c72mta\"><time class=\"css-kx0gap e16638kd0\" datetime=\"2025-03-09T00:01:12-05:00\">March 9, 2025, <span class=\"css-epvm6\">12:01 a.m. ET<\/span><\/time><\/div><\/header><div id=\"NYT_ABOVE_MAIN_CONTENT_REGION\" data-testid=\"region\"><div><div><div><div class=\"\"><div class=\"css-1lpvp6o\"><div class=\"css-81mraw\"><div class=\"css-le223v\"><div class=\"css-1ibyhwt\"><div class=\"css-myrxjz\"><div class=\"css-13brihr\"><strong class=\"css-in3yi3\">Want to stay updated on what\u2019s happening in Russia and Ukraine?<\/strong> <button type=\"button\" class=\"css-1mywdgm\"><span class=\"css-7ccglc\">Sign up for Your Places: Global Update<\/span><\/button>, and we\u2019ll send our latest coverage to your inbox.<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><section name=\"articleBody\" class=\"meteredContent css-1r7ky0e\"><div class=\"css-higijw\" data-testid=\"floating-button\"><div class=\"css-vxcmzt\"><div class=\"css-79elbk\"><button type=\"button\" aria-label=\"More sharing options ...\" aria-expanded=\"false\" class=\"css-120h94\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\" width=\"23\" height=\"18\" viewBox=\"0 0 23 18\" class=\"css-zd9juy\"><path d=\"M1.357 17.192a.663.663 0 0 1-.642-.81c1.82-7.955 6.197-12.068 12.331-11.68V1.127a.779.779 0 0 1 .42-.653.726.726 0 0 1 .78.106l8.195 6.986a.81.81 0 0 1 .253.557.82.82 0 0 1-.263.547l-8.196 6.955a.83.83 0 0 1-.779.105.747.747 0 0 1-.42-.663V11.29c-8.418-.905-10.974 5.177-11.08 5.45a.662.662 0 0 1-.6.453Zm10.048-7.26a16.37 16.37 0 0 1 2.314.158.81.81 0 0 1 .642.726v3.02l6.702-5.682-6.702-5.692v2.883a.767.767 0 0 1-.242.536.747.747 0 0 1-.547.18c-4.808-.537-8.364 1.85-10.448 6.922a11.679 11.679 0 0 1 8.28-3.093v.042Z\" fill=\"#000000\" fill-rule=\"nonzero\"><\/path><\/svg><\/button><\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"css-s99gbd StoryBodyCompanionColumn\" data-testid=\"companionColumn-0\"><div class=\"css-53u6y8\"><p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">When military and civilian experts on peacekeeping started meeting in Geneva in the spring of 2022, they insisted on discretion. Their topic was sensitive: how to implement a future cease-fire in Ukraine.<\/p><p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Last week, that group of experts went public for the first time, <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.gcsp.ch\/publications\/drawing-line-swiss-army-knife-options-achieving-sustainable-ceasefire-ukraine\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"\">publishing<\/a> a 31-page paper that delves into the technical details of how a cease-fire along a more than 700-mile front line could be monitored and enforced. The paper was shared last month via another confidential channel: a recurring meeting in Geneva between American, Russian and Ukrainian foreign-policy experts who are close to their governments.<\/p><p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The paper, one of the most detailed templates for a Ukraine cease-fire to have been published, is a sign of how quickly the topic of planning for a cease-fire has gone from a controversial and theoretical exercise to an urgent and practical issue.<\/p><p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">France and Britain have raised the prospect of sending thousands of their own troops to Ukraine after the fighting stops, though there is little clarity about what that force\u2019s responsibility would be. Russia has shown no sign of agreeing to such a force, while President Trump has offered few assurances of any American backup to it.<\/p><\/div><aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"><\/aside><\/div><div data-testid=\"Dropzone-1\"><div class=\"css-8atqhb\" data-testid=\"emptyDropzone\"><\/div><\/div><div class=\"css-s99gbd StoryBodyCompanionColumn\" data-testid=\"companionColumn-1\"><div class=\"css-53u6y8\"><p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cOne of the biggest cease-fire monitoring operations ever will be coming at us very quickly, with no planning thus far of what that would look like,\u201d said Walter Kemp, a specialist on European security who drafted the Geneva group\u2019s document.<\/p><p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Mr. Trump has said he wants a quick settlement and in the last week <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/03\/07\/us\/politics\/trump-russia-sanctions-tariffs.html\" title=\"\">has taken steps aimed at<\/a> forcing Ukraine to the negotiating table: Suspending military aid and the sharing of intelligence to Ukraine, while repeatedly saying, with no evidence, that he thinks President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia wants to make a deal.<\/p><p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">For most of Russia\u2019s three-year invasion of Ukraine, the possibility of a cease-fire seemed far-off <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2023\/09\/01\/world\/europe\/ukraine-fight-negotiations.html\" title=\"\">and, some analysts say, a taboo topic<\/a>. Kyiv and Western leaders sought to keep the focus on the battlefield rather than the complications of an eventual compromise, and were reluctant to speak publicly about the possibility that Ukraine would fall short of victory.<\/p><p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">But Mr. Trump\u2019s desire to end the fighting quickly has cast a spotlight on what will happen on the ground if the fighting does end. The previous cease-fire in Ukraine, negotiated in Minsk, Belarus, in 2015, was <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2016\/07\/28\/world\/europe\/ukraine-war-osce-observers.html\" title=\"\">plagued by spotty monitoring<\/a> and the absence of a way to punish violations of the deal\u2019s terms.<\/p><\/div><aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"><\/aside><\/div><div data-testid=\"ImageBlock-3\"><div data-testid=\"imageblock-wrapper\"><figure class=\"img-sz-medium css-d754w4 e1g7ppur0\" aria-label=\"media\" role=\"group\"><div class=\"css-1xdhyk6 erfvjey0\" data-testid=\"photoviewer-children-figure\"><span class=\"css-1ly73wi e1tej78p0\">Image<\/span><div class=\"css-nwd8t8\" data-testid=\"lazy-image\"><div data-testid=\"lazyimage-container\" style=\"height: 400px;\"><picture class=\"css-1j5kxti\"><source media=\"(max-width: 599px) and (min-device-pixel-ratio: 3),(max-width: 599px) and (min-resolution: 3dppx),(max-width: 599px) and (min-resolution: 288dpi)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2025\/03\/07\/multimedia\/00russia-ukraine-ceasefire-03-vlph\/00russia-ukraine-ceasefire-03-vlph-mobileMasterAt3x.jpg?quality=75&amp;auto=webp&amp;disable=upscale&amp;width=1800\"><source media=\"(max-width: 599px) and (min-device-pixel-ratio: 2),(max-width: 599px) and (min-resolution: 2dppx),(max-width: 599px) and (min-resolution: 192dpi)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2025\/03\/07\/multimedia\/00russia-ukraine-ceasefire-03-vlph\/00russia-ukraine-ceasefire-03-vlph-mobileMasterAt3x.jpg?quality=75&amp;auto=webp&amp;disable=upscale&amp;width=1200\"><source media=\"(max-width: 599px) and (min-device-pixel-ratio: 1),(max-width: 599px) and (min-resolution: 1dppx),(max-width: 599px) and (min-resolution: 96dpi)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2025\/03\/07\/multimedia\/00russia-ukraine-ceasefire-03-vlph\/00russia-ukraine-ceasefire-03-vlph-mobileMasterAt3x.jpg?quality=75&amp;auto=webp&amp;disable=upscale&amp;width=600\"><img alt=\"A blue sign at the border with arrows pointing to Ukraine in one direction and Russia in the other.\" class=\"css-1m50asq\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2025\/03\/07\/multimedia\/00russia-ukraine-ceasefire-03-vlph\/00russia-ukraine-ceasefire-03-vlph-articleLarge.jpg?quality=75&amp;auto=webp&amp;disable=upscale\" srcset=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2025\/03\/07\/multimedia\/00russia-ukraine-ceasefire-03-vlph\/00russia-ukraine-ceasefire-03-vlph-articleLarge.jpg?quality=75&amp;auto=webp 600w,https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2025\/03\/07\/multimedia\/00russia-ukraine-ceasefire-03-vlph\/00russia-ukraine-ceasefire-03-vlph-jumbo.jpg?quality=75&amp;auto=webp 1024w,https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2025\/03\/07\/multimedia\/00russia-ukraine-ceasefire-03-vlph\/00russia-ukraine-ceasefire-03-vlph-superJumbo.jpg?quality=75&amp;auto=webp 2048w\" sizes=\"((min-width: 600px) and (max-width: 1004px)) 84vw, (min-width: 1005px) 60vw, 100vw\" uri=\"nyt:\/\/image\/bbd49e5f-43b4-54dc-8cba-e5974ff42efc\" decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/picture><\/div><\/div><\/div><figcaption data-testid=\"photoviewer-children-caption\" class=\"css-gbc9ki ewdxa0s0\"><span class=\"css-jevhma e13ogyst0\">One of the difficulties of a cease-fire would be contending with the boundary between Russian and Ukrainian territory, which stretches for more than 700 miles.<\/span><span class=\"css-14fe1uy e1z0qqy90\"><span class=\"css-1ly73wi e1tej78p0\">Credit...<\/span><span><span aria-hidden=\"false\">David Guttenfelder for The New York Times<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div><\/div><div class=\"css-s99gbd StoryBodyCompanionColumn\" data-testid=\"companionColumn-2\"><div class=\"css-53u6y8\"><p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Last week\u2019s paper, produced by a Swiss government-financed think tank called the Geneva Center for Security Policy, laid out some specific numbers. It proposed a buffer zone at least six miles wide to separate the two armies, and a plan for 5,000 civilians and police officers to patrol it. The paper argued that about 10,000 foreign troops may be needed to provide security for those monitors.<\/p><\/div><aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"><\/aside><\/div><div data-testid=\"Dropzone-5\"><div class=\"css-8atqhb\" data-testid=\"emptyDropzone\"><\/div><\/div><div class=\"css-s99gbd StoryBodyCompanionColumn\" data-testid=\"companionColumn-3\"><div class=\"css-53u6y8\"><p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The monitors would report on cease-fire compliance and whether heavy weaponry had been withdrawn an agreed-upon distance from the buffer zone. The mission would operate under a mandate from the United Nations or another international body.<\/p><p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Such a force could help prevent tensions and misunderstandings from spiraling into renewed fighting, but it would be separate from any \u201ctripwire\u201d force meant to provide a security guarantee for Ukraine in the event of another Russian invasion.<\/p><p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Thomas Greminger, the Geneva center\u2019s director, oversaw cease-fire monitoring in Ukraine from 2017 to 2020 as the secretary general of the Vienna-based group doing the monitoring, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe.<\/p><p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">He said he pulled together a group of cease-fire experts soon after the 2022 invasion began, to come up with options for how to make a future armistice in Ukraine more durable than the last one.<\/p><\/div><aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"><\/aside><\/div><div data-testid=\"Dropzone-7\"><div class=\"css-8atqhb\" data-testid=\"emptyDropzone\"><\/div><\/div><div class=\"css-s99gbd StoryBodyCompanionColumn\" data-testid=\"companionColumn-4\"><div class=\"css-53u6y8\"><p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The experts included officials at international organizations and former military commanders with peacekeeping experience, he said. They requested not to be publicly identified because of the sensitivity of the topic for their institutions. <\/p><p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cWe had to be quite discreet,\u201d he said.<\/p><p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Separately, Mr. Greminger hosted confidential discussions between foreign-policy experts from Ukraine, Russia, the United States and Europe.<\/p><p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The participants in those meetings \u2014 whose identities Mr. Greminger would not disclose \u2014 acted in their personal capacity, he said, though they were expected to be briefed by their governments beforehand and to debrief them afterward. He said the initial purpose of the meetings, which started in 2022, was \u201cto establish a channel of communication\u201d with Moscow, and that scenarios for a cease-fire or settlement were also discussed.<\/p><\/div><aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"><\/aside><\/div><div data-testid=\"ImageBlock-9\"><div data-testid=\"imageblock-wrapper\"><figure class=\"img-sz-medium css-d754w4 e1g7ppur0\" aria-label=\"media\" role=\"group\"><div class=\"css-1xdhyk6 erfvjey0\" data-testid=\"photoviewer-children-figure\"><span class=\"css-1ly73wi e1tej78p0\">Image<\/span><div class=\"css-nwd8t8\" data-testid=\"lazy-image\"><div data-testid=\"lazyimage-container\" style=\"height: 400px;\"><picture class=\"css-1j5kxti\"><source media=\"(max-width: 599px) and (min-device-pixel-ratio: 3),(max-width: 599px) and (min-resolution: 3dppx),(max-width: 599px) and (min-resolution: 288dpi)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2025\/03\/07\/multimedia\/00russia-ukraine-ceasefire-01-vthl\/00russia-ukraine-ceasefire-01-vthl-mobileMasterAt3x.jpg?quality=75&amp;auto=webp&amp;disable=upscale&amp;width=1800\"><source media=\"(max-width: 599px) and (min-device-pixel-ratio: 2),(max-width: 599px) and (min-resolution: 2dppx),(max-width: 599px) and (min-resolution: 192dpi)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2025\/03\/07\/multimedia\/00russia-ukraine-ceasefire-01-vthl\/00russia-ukraine-ceasefire-01-vthl-mobileMasterAt3x.jpg?quality=75&amp;auto=webp&amp;disable=upscale&amp;width=1200\"><source media=\"(max-width: 599px) and (min-device-pixel-ratio: 1),(max-width: 599px) and (min-resolution: 1dppx),(max-width: 599px) and (min-resolution: 96dpi)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2025\/03\/07\/multimedia\/00russia-ukraine-ceasefire-01-vthl\/00russia-ukraine-ceasefire-01-vthl-mobileMasterAt3x.jpg?quality=75&amp;auto=webp&amp;disable=upscale&amp;width=600\"><img alt=\"\" class=\"css-1m50asq\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2025\/03\/07\/multimedia\/00russia-ukraine-ceasefire-01-vthl\/00russia-ukraine-ceasefire-01-vthl-articleLarge.jpg?quality=75&amp;auto=webp&amp;disable=upscale\" srcset=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2025\/03\/07\/multimedia\/00russia-ukraine-ceasefire-01-vthl\/00russia-ukraine-ceasefire-01-vthl-articleLarge.jpg?quality=75&amp;auto=webp 600w,https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2025\/03\/07\/multimedia\/00russia-ukraine-ceasefire-01-vthl\/00russia-ukraine-ceasefire-01-vthl-jumbo.jpg?quality=75&amp;auto=webp 1024w,https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2025\/03\/07\/multimedia\/00russia-ukraine-ceasefire-01-vthl\/00russia-ukraine-ceasefire-01-vthl-superJumbo.jpg?quality=75&amp;auto=webp 2048w\" sizes=\"((min-width: 600px) and (max-width: 1004px)) 84vw, (min-width: 1005px) 60vw, 100vw\" uri=\"nyt:\/\/image\/2a0b4eeb-e96f-529b-a3f3-524d6ae078df\" decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/picture><\/div><\/div><\/div><figcaption data-testid=\"photoviewer-children-caption\" class=\"css-gbc9ki ewdxa0s0\"><span class=\"css-jevhma e13ogyst0\">Thomas Greminger, the Geneva\u2019s Center\u2019s director, had past experience overseeing cease-fire monitoring in Ukraine from 2017 to 2020.<\/span><span class=\"css-14fe1uy e1z0qqy90\"><span class=\"css-1ly73wi e1tej78p0\">Credit...<\/span><span><span aria-hidden=\"false\">Martin Divisek\/EPA, via Shutterstock<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div><\/div><div class=\"css-s99gbd StoryBodyCompanionColumn\" data-testid=\"companionColumn-5\"><div class=\"css-53u6y8\"><p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">It\u2019s not clear what impact, if any, the cease-fire proposal will have on the negotiations themselves, especially given the personal approach taken by Mr. Trump and Mr. Putin. But the Geneva center\u2019s efforts also shed light on the behind-the-scenes diplomacy that has been a hallmark of a war in which the West and Ukraine have sought to isolate Russia on the world stage while engaging with Moscow on some matters privately.<\/p><\/div><aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"><\/aside><\/div><div data-testid=\"Dropzone-11\"><div class=\"css-8atqhb\" data-testid=\"emptyDropzone\"><\/div><\/div><div class=\"css-s99gbd StoryBodyCompanionColumn\" data-testid=\"companionColumn-6\"><div class=\"css-53u6y8\"><p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Back-channel negotiations with Russia, for example, have resulted in a series of prisoner-of-war exchanges and the deal that allowed Ukraine to export its grain through the Black Sea (until Russia pulled out of it in 2023). Throughout the war, the Geneva center\u2019s paper says, Russia and Ukraine \u201chave found ways to cooperate on issues of mutual interest.\u201d<\/p><p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The paper proposes that the international monitors would work with a joint commission made up of both Russian and Ukrainian military officials. Through the commission, both sides could hold each other accountable and negotiate things like the release of detainees, mine clearance and civilian corridors through the buffer zone.<\/p><p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cThis is going to be an unprecedented, difficult problem,\u201d said Samuel Charap, a Russia analyst at the RAND Corporation, referring to the implementation of a cease-fire in Ukraine.<\/p><p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">One reason is the length of the boundary between Ukrainian and Russian-occupied territory \u2014 some five times as long as the Demilitarized Zone between North and South Korea. Another, he said, is the sophistication and range of weaponry available to both Russia and Ukraine.<\/p><p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Mr. Charap said he was not involved with the Geneva center\u2019s project but was familiar with it, and that he was working on his own proposals for how sensors mounted on drones, aerostats, buoys and boats could be used to monitor a cease-fire.<\/p><\/div><aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"><div data-testid=\"lazy-loader\"><\/div><\/aside><\/div><div data-testid=\"Dropzone-13\"><div class=\"css-8atqhb\" data-testid=\"emptyDropzone\"><\/div><\/div><div data-testid=\"ImageBlock-14\"><div data-testid=\"imageblock-wrapper\"><figure class=\"img-sz-medium css-d754w4 e1g7ppur0\" aria-label=\"media\" role=\"group\"><div class=\"css-1xdhyk6 erfvjey0\" data-testid=\"photoviewer-children-figure\"><span class=\"css-1ly73wi e1tej78p0\">Image<\/span><div class=\"css-nwd8t8\" data-testid=\"lazy-image\"><div data-testid=\"lazyimage-container\" style=\"height: 400px;\"><picture class=\"css-1j5kxti\"><source media=\"(max-width: 599px) and (min-device-pixel-ratio: 3),(max-width: 599px) and (min-resolution: 3dppx),(max-width: 599px) and (min-resolution: 288dpi)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2025\/03\/07\/multimedia\/00russia-ukraine-ceasefire-gktz\/00russia-ukraine-ceasefire-gktz-mobileMasterAt3x.jpg?quality=75&amp;auto=webp&amp;disable=upscale&amp;width=1800\"><source media=\"(max-width: 599px) and (min-device-pixel-ratio: 2),(max-width: 599px) and (min-resolution: 2dppx),(max-width: 599px) and (min-resolution: 192dpi)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2025\/03\/07\/multimedia\/00russia-ukraine-ceasefire-gktz\/00russia-ukraine-ceasefire-gktz-mobileMasterAt3x.jpg?quality=75&amp;auto=webp&amp;disable=upscale&amp;width=1200\"><source media=\"(max-width: 599px) and (min-device-pixel-ratio: 1),(max-width: 599px) and (min-resolution: 1dppx),(max-width: 599px) and (min-resolution: 96dpi)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2025\/03\/07\/multimedia\/00russia-ukraine-ceasefire-gktz\/00russia-ukraine-ceasefire-gktz-mobileMasterAt3x.jpg?quality=75&amp;auto=webp&amp;disable=upscale&amp;width=600\"><img alt=\"A fortification barrier made up of large coils of barbed wire and dragons\u2019 teeth. in a field in Ukraine.\" class=\"css-1m50asq\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2025\/03\/07\/multimedia\/00russia-ukraine-ceasefire-gktz\/00russia-ukraine-ceasefire-gktz-articleLarge.jpg?quality=75&amp;auto=webp&amp;disable=upscale\" srcset=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2025\/03\/07\/multimedia\/00russia-ukraine-ceasefire-gktz\/00russia-ukraine-ceasefire-gktz-articleLarge.jpg?quality=75&amp;auto=webp 600w,https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2025\/03\/07\/multimedia\/00russia-ukraine-ceasefire-gktz\/00russia-ukraine-ceasefire-gktz-jumbo.jpg?quality=75&amp;auto=webp 1024w,https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2025\/03\/07\/multimedia\/00russia-ukraine-ceasefire-gktz\/00russia-ukraine-ceasefire-gktz-superJumbo.jpg?quality=75&amp;auto=webp 2048w\" sizes=\"((min-width: 600px) and (max-width: 1004px)) 84vw, (min-width: 1005px) 60vw, 100vw\" uri=\"nyt:\/\/image\/519a7fa4-c108-5ef6-8ba1-c12b32082733\" decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/picture><\/div><\/div><\/div><figcaption data-testid=\"photoviewer-children-caption\" class=\"css-gbc9ki ewdxa0s0\"><span class=\"css-jevhma e13ogyst0\">Dragons\u2019 teeth and barbed wire fortify a field near villages formerly occupied by Russian troops in the Kharkiv region in December.<\/span><span class=\"css-14fe1uy e1z0qqy90\"><span class=\"css-1ly73wi e1tej78p0\">Credit...<\/span><span><span aria-hidden=\"false\">Mauricio Lima for The New York Times<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div><\/div><div class=\"css-s99gbd StoryBodyCompanionColumn\" data-testid=\"companionColumn-7\"><div class=\"css-53u6y8\"><p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">He said that accurate monitoring would be a key factor in whether a future armistice in Ukraine would stick. Increasing the likelihood that a violation would be documented, he said, would reduce the incentives for either side to test the stability of the armistice. It could also lessen the chances that unintentional or rogue actions could trigger renewed fighting.<\/p><p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cI don\u2019t think there is a blueprint that can be easily consulted that is on the shelf\u201d for how to implement a Ukraine cease-fire, said Mr. Charap, who has long called for the West to explore a negotiated settlement. \u201cIn part because it was such a taboo issue for so long.\u201d<\/p><p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Skepticism over Mr. Putin\u2019s willingness to agree to a cease-fire, let alone stick to its terms, remains widespread, however; Russian officials pledged almost up until the start of the war that he had no intention of invading Ukraine. And no monitoring mission would be able to deter the Russian president if he decided to launch a new invasion of Ukraine.<\/p><p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Janis Kluge, a Russia expert at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, a research organization in Berlin, said it was \u201cdangerous to occupy your mind with this illusion\u201d of a potentially imminent cease-fire.<\/p><p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cI don\u2019t think it\u2019s realistic that Russia will agree to something where Ukraine remains independent and sovereign, even in the territory it controls,\u201d Mr. Kluge said.<\/p><\/div><aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"><\/aside><\/div><\/section><div class=\"bottom-of-article\"><div class=\"css-1i6tsou\"><div class=\"css-h77nca eqi4ubu0\"><div class=\"css-kzd6pg\"><p><span class=\"css-97bxx6\"><a class=\"authorPageLinkClass overrideLinkStyles\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/by\/anton-troianovski\">Anton Troianovski<\/a><\/span> is the Moscow bureau chief for The Times. He writes about Russia, Eastern Europe, the Caucasus and Central Asia.<span class=\"css-kzd6pg\"> <a class=\"authorPageLinkClass overrideLinkStyles\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/by\/anton-troianovski\">More about Anton Troianovski<\/a><\/span><\/p><\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"css-b9twaf e9ne27s0\">See more on: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/news-event\/ukraine-russia\">Russia-Ukraine War<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/topic\/person\/vladimir-putin\">Vladimir Putin<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/spotlight\/donald-trump\">Donald Trump<\/a><\/div><div role=\"toolbar\" data-testid=\"share-tools\" aria-label=\"Social Media Share buttons, Save button, and Comments Panel with current comment count\" class=\"css-yomkvi\"><div><\/div><div class=\"css-n8j48p\"><\/div><div data-testid=\"share-tools-menu\" class=\"css-6p9mwl\"><ul data-testid=\"share-tools-list\" class=\"css-1atjma0\"><li class=\"css-atthsv\"><div class=\"css-vxcmzt\"><div 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Their topic was sensitive: how to implement a future cease-fire in Ukraine.\"}],\"textAlign\":\"LEFT\"},{\"__typename\":\"Dropzone\",\"adsDesktop\":false,\"adsDesktopHoldout\":false,\"adsHybrid\":false,\"adsMobile\":false,\"adsMobileHoldout\":false,\"bad\":false,\"index\":0},{\"__typename\":\"ParagraphBlock\",\"content\":[{\"__typename\":\"TextInline\",\"formats\":[],\"text\":\"Last week, that group of experts went public for the first time, \"},{\"__typename\":\"TextInline\",\"formats\":[{\"__typename\":\"LinkFormat\",\"title\":\"\",\"uri\":null,\"url\":\"https:\\u002F\\u002Fwww.gcsp.ch\\u002Fpublications\\u002Fdrawing-line-swiss-army-knife-options-achieving-sustainable-ceasefire-ukraine\"}],\"text\":\"publishing\"},{\"__typename\":\"TextInline\",\"formats\":[],\"text\":\" a 31-page paper that delves into the technical details of how a cease-fire along a more than 700-mile front line could be monitored and enforced. The paper was shared last month via another confidential channel: a recurring meeting in Geneva between American, Russian and Ukrainian foreign-policy experts who are close to their governments.\"}],\"textAlign\":\"LEFT\"},{\"__typename\":\"Dropzone\",\"adsDesktop\":false,\"adsDesktopHoldout\":false,\"adsHybrid\":false,\"adsMobile\":false,\"adsMobileHoldout\":false,\"bad\":false,\"index\":1},{\"__typename\":\"ParagraphBlock\",\"content\":[{\"__typename\":\"TextInline\",\"formats\":[],\"text\":\"The paper, one of the most detailed templates for a Ukraine cease-fire to have been published, is a sign of how quickly the topic of planning for a cease-fire has gone from a controversial and theoretical exercise to an urgent and practical issue.\"}],\"textAlign\":\"LEFT\"},{\"__typename\":\"Dropzone\",\"adsDesktop\":false,\"adsDesktopHoldout\":false,\"adsHybrid\":false,\"adsMobile\":false,\"adsMobileHoldout\":true,\"bad\":false,\"index\":2},{\"__typename\":\"ParagraphBlock\",\"content\":[{\"__typename\":\"TextInline\",\"formats\":[],\"text\":\"France and Britain have raised the prospect of sending thousands of their own troops to Ukraine after the fighting stops, though there is little clarity about what that force\u2019s responsibility would be. Russia has shown no sign of agreeing to such a force, while President Trump has offered few assurances of any American backup to it.\"}],\"textAlign\":\"LEFT\"},{\"__typename\":\"Dropzone\",\"adsDesktop\":true,\"adsDesktopHoldout\":true,\"adsHybrid\":true,\"adsMobile\":true,\"adsMobileHoldout\":false,\"bad\":false,\"index\":3},{\"__typename\":\"ParagraphBlock\",\"content\":[{\"__typename\":\"TextInline\",\"formats\":[],\"text\":\"\u201cOne of the biggest cease-fire monitoring operations ever will be coming at us very quickly, with no planning thus far of what that would look like,\u201d said Walter Kemp, a specialist on European security who drafted the Geneva group\u2019s document.\"}],\"textAlign\":\"LEFT\"},{\"__typename\":\"Dropzone\",\"adsDesktop\":false,\"adsDesktopHoldout\":false,\"adsHybrid\":false,\"adsMobile\":false,\"adsMobileHoldout\":false,\"bad\":false,\"index\":4},{\"__typename\":\"ParagraphBlock\",\"content\":[{\"__typename\":\"TextInline\",\"formats\":[],\"text\":\"Mr. Trump has said he wants a quick settlement and in the last week \"},{\"__typename\":\"TextInline\",\"formats\":[{\"__typename\":\"LinkFormat\",\"title\":\"\",\"uri\":null,\"url\":\"https:\\u002F\\u002Fwww.nytimes.com\\u002F2025\\u002F03\\u002F07\\u002Fus\\u002Fpolitics\\u002Ftrump-russia-sanctions-tariffs.html\"}],\"text\":\"has taken steps aimed at\"},{\"__typename\":\"TextInline\",\"formats\":[],\"text\":\" forcing Ukraine to the negotiating table: Suspending military aid and the sharing of intelligence to Ukraine, while repeatedly saying, with no evidence, that he thinks President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia wants to make a deal.\"}],\"textAlign\":\"LEFT\"},{\"__typename\":\"Dropzone\",\"adsDesktop\":false,\"adsDesktopHoldout\":false,\"adsHybrid\":false,\"adsMobile\":false,\"adsMobileHoldout\":false,\"bad\":false,\"index\":5},{\"__typename\":\"ParagraphBlock\",\"content\":[{\"__typename\":\"TextInline\",\"formats\":[],\"text\":\"For most of Russia\u2019s three-year invasion of Ukraine, the possibility of a cease-fire seemed far-off \"},{\"__typename\":\"TextInline\",\"formats\":[{\"__typename\":\"LinkFormat\",\"title\":\"\",\"uri\":null,\"url\":\"https:\\u002F\\u002Fwww.nytimes.com\\u002F2023\\u002F09\\u002F01\\u002Fworld\\u002Feurope\\u002Fukraine-fight-negotiations.html\"}],\"text\":\"and, some analysts say, a taboo topic\"},{\"__typename\":\"TextInline\",\"formats\":[],\"text\":\". Kyiv and Western leaders sought to keep the focus on the battlefield rather than the complications of an eventual compromise, and were reluctant to speak publicly about the possibility that Ukraine would fall short of victory.\"}],\"textAlign\":\"LEFT\"},{\"__typename\":\"Dropzone\",\"adsDesktop\":false,\"adsDesktopHoldout\":false,\"adsHybrid\":true,\"adsMobile\":true,\"adsMobileHoldout\":true,\"bad\":false,\"index\":6},{\"__typename\":\"ParagraphBlock\",\"content\":[{\"__typename\":\"TextInline\",\"formats\":[],\"text\":\"But Mr. Trump\u2019s desire to end the fighting quickly has cast a spotlight on what will happen on the ground if the fighting does end. The previous cease-fire in Ukraine, negotiated in Minsk, Belarus, in 2015, was \"},{\"__typename\":\"TextInline\",\"formats\":[{\"__typename\":\"LinkFormat\",\"title\":\"\",\"uri\":null,\"url\":\"https:\\u002F\\u002Fwww.nytimes.com\\u002F2016\\u002F07\\u002F28\\u002Fworld\\u002Feurope\\u002Fukraine-war-osce-observers.html\"}],\"text\":\"plagued by spotty monitoring\"},{\"__typename\":\"TextInline\",\"formats\":[],\"text\":\" and the absence of a way to punish violations of the deal\u2019s terms.\"}],\"textAlign\":\"LEFT\"},{\"__typename\":\"Dropzone\",\"adsDesktop\":false,\"adsDesktopHoldout\":false,\"adsHybrid\":false,\"adsMobile\":false,\"adsMobileHoldout\":false,\"bad\":true,\"index\":7},{\"__typename\":\"ImageBlock\",\"media\":{\"__typename\":\"Image\",\"altText\":\"A blue sign at the border with arrows pointing to Ukraine in one direction and Russia in the other.\",\"caption\":{\"__typename\":\"TextOnlyDocumentBlock\",\"content\":[{\"__typename\":\"ParagraphBlock\",\"content\":[{\"__typename\":\"TextInline\",\"formats\":[],\"text\":\"One of the difficulties of a cease-fire would be contending with the boundary between Russian and Ukrainian territory, which stretches for more than 700 miles.\"}]}],\"text\":\"One of the difficulties of a cease-fire would be contending with the boundary between Russian and Ukrainian territory, which stretches for more than 700 miles.\"},\"credit\":\"David Guttenfelder for The New York Times\",\"crops\":[{\"__typename\":\"ImageCrop\",\"renditions\":[{\"__typename\":\"ImageRendition\",\"height\":400,\"name\":\"articleLarge\",\"url\":\"https:\\u002F\\u002Fstatic01.nyt.com\\u002Fimages\\u002F2025\\u002F03\\u002F07\\u002Fmultimedia\\u002F00russia-ukraine-ceasefire-03-vlph\\u002F00russia-ukraine-ceasefire-03-vlph-articleLarge.jpg\",\"width\":600},{\"__typename\":\"ImageRendition\",\"height\":434,\"name\":\"popup\",\"url\":\"https:\\u002F\\u002Fstatic01.nyt.com\\u002Fimages\\u002F2025\\u002F03\\u002F07\\u002Fmultimedia\\u002F00russia-ukraine-ceasefire-03-vlph\\u002F00russia-ukraine-ceasefire-03-vlph-popup.jpg\",\"width\":650},{\"__typename\":\"ImageRendition\",\"height\":683,\"name\":\"jumbo\",\"url\":\"https:\\u002F\\u002Fstatic01.nyt.com\\u002Fimages\\u002F2025\\u002F03\\u002F07\\u002Fmultimedia\\u002F00russia-ukraine-ceasefire-03-vlph\\u002F00russia-ukraine-ceasefire-03-vlph-jumbo.jpg\",\"width\":1024},{\"__typename\":\"ImageRendition\",\"height\":1366,\"name\":\"superJumbo\",\"url\":\"https:\\u002F\\u002Fstatic01.nyt.com\\u002Fimages\\u002F2025\\u002F03\\u002F07\\u002Fmultimedia\\u002F00russia-ukraine-ceasefire-03-vlph\\u002F00russia-ukraine-ceasefire-03-vlph-superJumbo.jpg\",\"width\":2048}]},{\"__typename\":\"ImageCrop\",\"renditions\":[{\"__typename\":\"ImageRendition\",\"height\":150,\"name\":\"thumbLarge\",\"url\":\"https:\\u002F\\u002Fstatic01.nyt.com\\u002Fimages\\u002F2025\\u002F03\\u002F07\\u002Fmultimedia\\u002F00russia-ukraine-ceasefire-03-vlph\\u002F00russia-ukraine-ceasefire-03-vlph-thumbLarge.jpg\",\"width\":150}]},{\"__typename\":\"ImageCrop\",\"renditions\":[{\"__typename\":\"ImageRendition\",\"height\":127,\"name\":\"articleInline\",\"url\":\"https:\\u002F\\u002Fstatic01.nyt.com\\u002Fimages\\u002F2025\\u002F03\\u002F07\\u002Fmultimedia\\u002F00russia-ukraine-ceasefire-03-vlph\\u002F00russia-ukraine-ceasefire-03-vlph-articleInline.jpg\",\"width\":190}]},{\"__typename\":\"ImageCrop\",\"renditions\":[{\"__typename\":\"ImageRendition\",\"height\":1331,\"name\":\"mobileMasterAt3x\",\"url\":\"https:\\u002F\\u002Fstatic01.nyt.com\\u002Fimages\\u002F2025\\u002F03\\u002F07\\u002Fmultimedia\\u002F00russia-ukraine-ceasefire-03-vlph\\u002F00russia-ukraine-ceasefire-03-vlph-mobileMasterAt3x.jpg\",\"width\":1800}]}],\"id\":\"SW1hZ2U6bnl0Oi8vaW1hZ2UvYmJkNDllNWYtNDNiNC01NGRjLThjYmEtZTU5NzRmZjQyZWZj\",\"imageType\":\"photo\",\"legacyHtmlCaption\":\"One of the difficulties of a cease-fire would be contending with the boundary between Russian and Ukrainian territory, which stretches for more than 700 miles.\",\"timesTags\":[],\"uri\":\"nyt:\\u002F\\u002Fimage\\u002Fbbd49e5f-43b4-54dc-8cba-e5974ff42efc\",\"url\":\"\\u002Fimagepages\\u002F2025\\u002F03\\u002F09\\u002Fmultimedia\\u002F00russia-ukraine-ceasefire-03-vlph.html\"},\"size\":\"MEDIUM\"},{\"__typename\":\"Dropzone\",\"adsDesktop\":false,\"adsDesktopHoldout\":false,\"adsHybrid\":false,\"adsMobile\":false,\"adsMobileHoldout\":false,\"bad\":true,\"index\":8},{\"__typename\":\"ParagraphBlock\",\"content\":[{\"__typename\":\"TextInline\",\"formats\":[],\"text\":\"Last week\u2019s paper, produced by a Swiss government-financed think tank called the Geneva Center for Security Policy, laid out some specific numbers. It proposed a buffer zone at least six miles wide to separate the two armies, and a plan for 5,000 civilians and police officers to patrol it. The paper argued that about 10,000 foreign troops may be needed to provide security for those monitors.\"}],\"textAlign\":\"LEFT\"},{\"__typename\":\"Dropzone\",\"adsDesktop\":true,\"adsDesktopHoldout\":true,\"adsHybrid\":false,\"adsMobile\":false,\"adsMobileHoldout\":false,\"bad\":false,\"index\":9},{\"__typename\":\"ParagraphBlock\",\"content\":[{\"__typename\":\"TextInline\",\"formats\":[],\"text\":\"The monitors would report on cease-fire compliance and whether heavy weaponry had been withdrawn an agreed-upon distance from the buffer zone. The mission would operate under a mandate from the United Nations or another international body.\"}],\"textAlign\":\"LEFT\"},{\"__typename\":\"Dropzone\",\"adsDesktop\":false,\"adsDesktopHoldout\":false,\"adsHybrid\":false,\"adsMobile\":false,\"adsMobileHoldout\":true,\"bad\":false,\"index\":10},{\"__typename\":\"ParagraphBlock\",\"content\":[{\"__typename\":\"TextInline\",\"formats\":[],\"text\":\"Such a force could help prevent tensions and misunderstandings from spiraling into renewed fighting, but it would be separate from any \u201ctripwire\u201d force meant to provide a security guarantee for Ukraine in the event of another Russian invasion.\"}],\"textAlign\":\"LEFT\"},{\"__typename\":\"Dropzone\",\"adsDesktop\":false,\"adsDesktopHoldout\":false,\"adsHybrid\":true,\"adsMobile\":true,\"adsMobileHoldout\":false,\"bad\":false,\"index\":11},{\"__typename\":\"ParagraphBlock\",\"content\":[{\"__typename\":\"TextInline\",\"formats\":[],\"text\":\"Thomas Greminger, the Geneva center\u2019s director, oversaw cease-fire monitoring in Ukraine from 2017 to 2020 as the secretary general of the Vienna-based group doing the monitoring, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe.\"}],\"textAlign\":\"LEFT\"},{\"__typename\":\"Dropzone\",\"adsDesktop\":false,\"adsDesktopHoldout\":false,\"adsHybrid\":false,\"adsMobile\":false,\"adsMobileHoldout\":false,\"bad\":false,\"index\":12},{\"__typename\":\"ParagraphBlock\",\"content\":[{\"__typename\":\"TextInline\",\"formats\":[],\"text\":\"He said he pulled together a group of cease-fire experts soon after the 2022 invasion began, to come up with options for how to make a future armistice in Ukraine more durable than the last one.\"}],\"textAlign\":\"LEFT\"},{\"__typename\":\"Dropzone\",\"adsDesktop\":false,\"adsDesktopHoldout\":true,\"adsHybrid\":false,\"adsMobile\":false,\"adsMobileHoldout\":false,\"bad\":false,\"index\":13},{\"__typename\":\"ParagraphBlock\",\"content\":[{\"__typename\":\"TextInline\",\"formats\":[],\"text\":\"The experts included officials at international organizations and former military commanders with peacekeeping experience, he said. They requested not to be publicly identified because of the sensitivity of the topic for their institutions. \"}],\"textAlign\":\"LEFT\"},{\"__typename\":\"Dropzone\",\"adsDesktop\":false,\"adsDesktopHoldout\":false,\"adsHybrid\":false,\"adsMobile\":false,\"adsMobileHoldout\":true,\"bad\":false,\"index\":14},{\"__typename\":\"ParagraphBlock\",\"content\":[{\"__typename\":\"TextInline\",\"formats\":[],\"text\":\"\u201cWe had to be quite discreet,\u201d he said.\"}],\"textAlign\":\"LEFT\"},{\"__typename\":\"ParagraphBlock\",\"content\":[{\"__typename\":\"TextInline\",\"formats\":[],\"text\":\"Separately, Mr. Greminger hosted confidential discussions between foreign-policy experts from Ukraine, Russia, the United States and Europe.\"}],\"textAlign\":\"LEFT\"},{\"__typename\":\"Dropzone\",\"adsDesktop\":true,\"adsDesktopHoldout\":false,\"adsHybrid\":true,\"adsMobile\":true,\"adsMobileHoldout\":false,\"bad\":false,\"index\":15},{\"__typename\":\"ParagraphBlock\",\"content\":[{\"__typename\":\"TextInline\",\"formats\":[],\"text\":\"The participants in those meetings \u2014 whose identities Mr. Greminger would not disclose \u2014 acted in their personal capacity, he said, though they were expected to be briefed by their governments beforehand and to debrief them afterward. He said the initial purpose of the meetings, which started in 2022, was \u201cto establish a channel of communication\u201d with Moscow, and that scenarios for a cease-fire or settlement were also discussed.\"}],\"textAlign\":\"LEFT\"},{\"__typename\":\"Dropzone\",\"adsDesktop\":false,\"adsDesktopHoldout\":false,\"adsHybrid\":false,\"adsMobile\":false,\"adsMobileHoldout\":false,\"bad\":true,\"index\":16},{\"__typename\":\"ImageBlock\",\"media\":{\"__typename\":\"Image\",\"altText\":\"\",\"caption\":{\"__typename\":\"TextOnlyDocumentBlock\",\"content\":[{\"__typename\":\"ParagraphBlock\",\"content\":[{\"__typename\":\"TextInline\",\"formats\":[],\"text\":\"Thomas Greminger, the Geneva\u2019s Center\u2019s director, had past experience overseeing cease-fire monitoring in Ukraine from 2017 to 2020.\"}]}],\"text\":\"Thomas Greminger, the Geneva\u2019s Center\u2019s director, had past experience overseeing cease-fire monitoring in Ukraine from 2017 to 2020.\"},\"credit\":\"Martin Divisek\\u002FEPA, via Shutterstock\",\"crops\":[{\"__typename\":\"ImageCrop\",\"renditions\":[{\"__typename\":\"ImageRendition\",\"height\":400,\"name\":\"articleLarge\",\"url\":\"https:\\u002F\\u002Fstatic01.nyt.com\\u002Fimages\\u002F2025\\u002F03\\u002F07\\u002Fmultimedia\\u002F00russia-ukraine-ceasefire-01-vthl\\u002F00russia-ukraine-ceasefire-01-vthl-articleLarge.jpg\",\"width\":600},{\"__typename\":\"ImageRendition\",\"height\":433,\"name\":\"popup\",\"url\":\"https:\\u002F\\u002Fstatic01.nyt.com\\u002Fimages\\u002F2025\\u002F03\\u002F07\\u002Fmultimedia\\u002F00russia-ukraine-ceasefire-01-vthl\\u002F00russia-ukraine-ceasefire-01-vthl-popup.jpg\",\"width\":650},{\"__typename\":\"ImageRendition\",\"height\":683,\"name\":\"jumbo\",\"url\":\"https:\\u002F\\u002Fstatic01.nyt.com\\u002Fimages\\u002F2025\\u002F03\\u002F07\\u002Fmultimedia\\u002F00russia-ukraine-ceasefire-01-vthl\\u002F00russia-ukraine-ceasefire-01-vthl-jumbo.jpg\",\"width\":1024},{\"__typename\":\"ImageRendition\",\"height\":1365,\"name\":\"superJumbo\",\"url\":\"https:\\u002F\\u002Fstatic01.nyt.com\\u002Fimages\\u002F2025\\u002F03\\u002F07\\u002Fmultimedia\\u002F00russia-ukraine-ceasefire-01-vthl\\u002F00russia-ukraine-ceasefire-01-vthl-superJumbo.jpg\",\"width\":2048}]},{\"__typename\":\"ImageCrop\",\"renditions\":[{\"__typename\":\"ImageRendition\",\"height\":150,\"name\":\"thumbLarge\",\"url\":\"https:\\u002F\\u002Fstatic01.nyt.com\\u002Fimages\\u002F2025\\u002F03\\u002F07\\u002Fmultimedia\\u002F00russia-ukraine-ceasefire-01-vthl\\u002F00russia-ukraine-ceasefire-01-vthl-thumbLarge.jpg\",\"width\":150}]},{\"__typename\":\"ImageCrop\",\"renditions\":[{\"__typename\":\"ImageRendition\",\"height\":127,\"name\":\"articleInline\",\"url\":\"https:\\u002F\\u002Fstatic01.nyt.com\\u002Fimages\\u002F2025\\u002F03\\u002F07\\u002Fmultimedia\\u002F00russia-ukraine-ceasefire-01-vthl\\u002F00russia-ukraine-ceasefire-01-vthl-articleInline.jpg\",\"width\":190}]},{\"__typename\":\"ImageCrop\",\"renditions\":[{\"__typename\":\"ImageRendition\",\"height\":1393,\"name\":\"mobileMasterAt3x\",\"url\":\"https:\\u002F\\u002Fstatic01.nyt.com\\u002Fimages\\u002F2025\\u002F03\\u002F07\\u002Fmultimedia\\u002F00russia-ukraine-ceasefire-01-vthl\\u002F00russia-ukraine-ceasefire-01-vthl-mobileMasterAt3x.jpg\",\"width\":1800}]}],\"id\":\"SW1hZ2U6bnl0Oi8vaW1hZ2UvMmEwYjRlZWItZTk2Zi01MjliLWEzZjMtNTI0ZDZhZTA3OGRm\",\"imageType\":\"photo\",\"legacyHtmlCaption\":\"Thomas Greminger, the Geneva\u2019s Center\u2019s director, had past experience overseeing cease-fire monitoring in Ukraine from 2017 to 2020.\",\"timesTags\":[],\"uri\":\"nyt:\\u002F\\u002Fimage\\u002F2a0b4eeb-e96f-529b-a3f3-524d6ae078df\",\"url\":\"\\u002Fimagepages\\u002F2025\\u002F03\\u002F09\\u002Fmultimedia\\u002F00russia-ukraine-ceasefire-01-vthl.html\"},\"size\":\"MEDIUM\"},{\"__typename\":\"Dropzone\",\"adsDesktop\":false,\"adsDesktopHoldout\":false,\"adsHybrid\":false,\"adsMobile\":false,\"adsMobileHoldout\":false,\"bad\":true,\"index\":17},{\"__typename\":\"ParagraphBlock\",\"content\":[{\"__typename\":\"TextInline\",\"formats\":[],\"text\":\"It\u2019s not clear what impact, if any, the cease-fire proposal will have on the negotiations themselves, especially given the personal approach taken by Mr. Trump and Mr. Putin. But the Geneva center\u2019s efforts also shed light on the behind-the-scenes diplomacy that has been a hallmark of a war in which the West and Ukraine have sought to isolate Russia on the world stage while engaging with Moscow on some matters privately.\"}],\"textAlign\":\"LEFT\"},{\"__typename\":\"Dropzone\",\"adsDesktop\":false,\"adsDesktopHoldout\":true,\"adsHybrid\":false,\"adsMobile\":false,\"adsMobileHoldout\":true,\"bad\":false,\"index\":18},{\"__typename\":\"ParagraphBlock\",\"content\":[{\"__typename\":\"TextInline\",\"formats\":[],\"text\":\"Back-channel negotiations with Russia, for example, have resulted in a series of prisoner-of-war exchanges and the deal that allowed Ukraine to export its grain through the Black Sea (until Russia pulled out of it in 2023). Throughout the war, the Geneva center\u2019s paper says, Russia and Ukraine \u201chave found ways to cooperate on issues of mutual interest.\u201d\"}],\"textAlign\":\"LEFT\"},{\"__typename\":\"Dropzone\",\"adsDesktop\":false,\"adsDesktopHoldout\":false,\"adsHybrid\":true,\"adsMobile\":true,\"adsMobileHoldout\":false,\"bad\":false,\"index\":19},{\"__typename\":\"ParagraphBlock\",\"content\":[{\"__typename\":\"TextInline\",\"formats\":[],\"text\":\"The paper proposes that the international monitors would work with a joint commission made up of both Russian and Ukrainian military officials. Through the commission, both sides could hold each other accountable and negotiate things like the release of detainees, mine clearance and civilian corridors through the buffer zone.\"}],\"textAlign\":\"LEFT\"},{\"__typename\":\"Dropzone\",\"adsDesktop\":false,\"adsDesktopHoldout\":false,\"adsHybrid\":false,\"adsMobile\":false,\"adsMobileHoldout\":false,\"bad\":false,\"index\":20},{\"__typename\":\"ParagraphBlock\",\"content\":[{\"__typename\":\"TextInline\",\"formats\":[],\"text\":\"\u201cThis is going to be an unprecedented, difficult problem,\u201d said Samuel Charap, a Russia analyst at the RAND Corporation, referring to the implementation of a cease-fire in Ukraine.\"}],\"textAlign\":\"LEFT\"},{\"__typename\":\"Dropzone\",\"adsDesktop\":false,\"adsDesktopHoldout\":false,\"adsHybrid\":false,\"adsMobile\":false,\"adsMobileHoldout\":false,\"bad\":false,\"index\":21},{\"__typename\":\"ParagraphBlock\",\"content\":[{\"__typename\":\"TextInline\",\"formats\":[],\"text\":\"One reason is the length of the boundary between Ukrainian and Russian-occupied territory \u2014 some five times as long as the Demilitarized Zone between North and South Korea. Another, he said, is the sophistication and range of weaponry available to both Russia and Ukraine.\"}],\"textAlign\":\"LEFT\"},{\"__typename\":\"Dropzone\",\"adsDesktop\":true,\"adsDesktopHoldout\":false,\"adsHybrid\":false,\"adsMobile\":false,\"adsMobileHoldout\":true,\"bad\":false,\"index\":22},{\"__typename\":\"ParagraphBlock\",\"content\":[{\"__typename\":\"TextInline\",\"formats\":[],\"text\":\"Mr. Charap said he was not involved with the Geneva center\u2019s project but was familiar with it, and that he was working on his own proposals for how sensors mounted on drones, aerostats, buoys and boats could be used to monitor a cease-fire.\"}],\"textAlign\":\"LEFT\"},{\"__typename\":\"Dropzone\",\"adsDesktop\":false,\"adsDesktopHoldout\":true,\"adsHybrid\":false,\"adsMobile\":true,\"adsMobileHoldout\":false,\"bad\":true,\"index\":23},{\"__typename\":\"ImageBlock\",\"media\":{\"__typename\":\"Image\",\"altText\":\"A fortification barrier made up of large coils of barbed wire and dragons\u2019 teeth. in a field in Ukraine.\",\"caption\":{\"__typename\":\"TextOnlyDocumentBlock\",\"content\":[{\"__typename\":\"ParagraphBlock\",\"content\":[{\"__typename\":\"TextInline\",\"formats\":[],\"text\":\"Dragons\u2019 teeth and barbed wire fortify a field near villages formerly occupied by Russian troops in the Kharkiv region in December.\"}]}],\"text\":\"Dragons\u2019 teeth and barbed wire fortify a field near villages formerly occupied by Russian troops in the Kharkiv region in December.\"},\"credit\":\"Mauricio Lima for The New York Times\",\"crops\":[{\"__typename\":\"ImageCrop\",\"renditions\":[{\"__typename\":\"ImageRendition\",\"height\":400,\"name\":\"articleLarge\",\"url\":\"https:\\u002F\\u002Fstatic01.nyt.com\\u002Fimages\\u002F2025\\u002F03\\u002F07\\u002Fmultimedia\\u002F00russia-ukraine-ceasefire-gktz\\u002F00russia-ukraine-ceasefire-gktz-articleLarge.jpg\",\"width\":600},{\"__typename\":\"ImageRendition\",\"height\":433,\"name\":\"popup\",\"url\":\"https:\\u002F\\u002Fstatic01.nyt.com\\u002Fimages\\u002F2025\\u002F03\\u002F07\\u002Fmultimedia\\u002F00russia-ukraine-ceasefire-gktz\\u002F00russia-ukraine-ceasefire-gktz-popup.jpg\",\"width\":650},{\"__typename\":\"ImageRendition\",\"height\":683,\"name\":\"jumbo\",\"url\":\"https:\\u002F\\u002Fstatic01.nyt.com\\u002Fimages\\u002F2025\\u002F03\\u002F07\\u002Fmultimedia\\u002F00russia-ukraine-ceasefire-gktz\\u002F00russia-ukraine-ceasefire-gktz-jumbo.jpg\",\"width\":1024},{\"__typename\":\"ImageRendition\",\"height\":1365,\"name\":\"superJumbo\",\"url\":\"https:\\u002F\\u002Fstatic01.nyt.com\\u002Fimages\\u002F2025\\u002F03\\u002F07\\u002Fmultimedia\\u002F00russia-ukraine-ceasefire-gktz\\u002F00russia-ukraine-ceasefire-gktz-superJumbo.jpg\",\"width\":2048}]},{\"__typename\":\"ImageCrop\",\"renditions\":[{\"__typename\":\"ImageRendition\",\"height\":150,\"name\":\"thumbLarge\",\"url\":\"https:\\u002F\\u002Fstatic01.nyt.com\\u002Fimages\\u002F2025\\u002F03\\u002F07\\u002Fmultimedia\\u002F00russia-ukraine-ceasefire-gktz\\u002F00russia-ukraine-ceasefire-gktz-thumbLarge.jpg\",\"width\":150}]},{\"__typename\":\"ImageCrop\",\"renditions\":[{\"__typename\":\"ImageRendition\",\"height\":127,\"name\":\"articleInline\",\"url\":\"https:\\u002F\\u002Fstatic01.nyt.com\\u002Fimages\\u002F2025\\u002F03\\u002F07\\u002Fmultimedia\\u002F00russia-ukraine-ceasefire-gktz\\u002F00russia-ukraine-ceasefire-gktz-articleInline.jpg\",\"width\":190}]},{\"__typename\":\"ImageCrop\",\"renditions\":[{\"__typename\":\"ImageRendition\",\"height\":1800,\"name\":\"mobileMasterAt3x\",\"url\":\"https:\\u002F\\u002Fstatic01.nyt.com\\u002Fimages\\u002F2025\\u002F03\\u002F07\\u002Fmultimedia\\u002F00russia-ukraine-ceasefire-gktz\\u002F00russia-ukraine-ceasefire-gktz-mobileMasterAt3x.jpg\",\"width\":1800}]}],\"id\":\"SW1hZ2U6bnl0Oi8vaW1hZ2UvNTE5YTdmYTQtYzEwOC01ZWY2LThiYTEtYzEyYjMyMDgyNzMz\",\"imageType\":\"photo\",\"legacyHtmlCaption\":\"Dragons\u2019 teeth and barbed wire fortify a field near villages formerly occupied by Russian troops in the Kharkiv region in December.\",\"timesTags\":[],\"uri\":\"nyt:\\u002F\\u002Fimage\\u002F519a7fa4-c108-5ef6-8ba1-c12b32082733\",\"url\":\"\\u002Fimagepages\\u002F2025\\u002F03\\u002F09\\u002Fmultimedia\\u002F00russia-ukraine-ceasefire-gktz.html\"},\"size\":\"MEDIUM\"},{\"__typename\":\"Dropzone\",\"adsDesktop\":false,\"adsDesktopHoldout\":false,\"adsHybrid\":false,\"adsMobile\":false,\"adsMobileHoldout\":false,\"bad\":true,\"index\":24},{\"__typename\":\"ParagraphBlock\",\"content\":[{\"__typename\":\"TextInline\",\"formats\":[],\"text\":\"He said that accurate monitoring would be a key factor in whether a future armistice in Ukraine would stick. Increasing the likelihood that a violation would be documented, he said, would reduce the incentives for either side to test the stability of the armistice. It could also lessen the chances that unintentional or rogue actions could trigger renewed fighting.\"}],\"textAlign\":\"LEFT\"},{\"__typename\":\"Dropzone\",\"adsDesktop\":false,\"adsDesktopHoldout\":false,\"adsHybrid\":false,\"adsMobile\":false,\"adsMobileHoldout\":false,\"bad\":false,\"index\":25},{\"__typename\":\"ParagraphBlock\",\"content\":[{\"__typename\":\"TextInline\",\"formats\":[],\"text\":\"\u201cI don\u2019t think there is a blueprint that can be easily consulted that is on the shelf\u201d for how to implement a Ukraine cease-fire, said Mr. Charap, who has long called for the West to explore a negotiated settlement. \u201cIn part because it was such a taboo issue for so long.\u201d\"}],\"textAlign\":\"LEFT\"},{\"__typename\":\"Dropzone\",\"adsDesktop\":false,\"adsDesktopHoldout\":false,\"adsHybrid\":false,\"adsMobile\":false,\"adsMobileHoldout\":true,\"bad\":false,\"index\":26},{\"__typename\":\"ParagraphBlock\",\"content\":[{\"__typename\":\"TextInline\",\"formats\":[],\"text\":\"Skepticism over Mr. Putin\u2019s willingness to agree to a cease-fire, let alone stick to its terms, remains widespread, however; Russian officials pledged almost up until the start of the war that he had no intention of invading Ukraine. And no monitoring mission would be able to deter the Russian president if he decided to launch a new invasion of Ukraine.\"}],\"textAlign\":\"LEFT\"},{\"__typename\":\"Dropzone\",\"adsDesktop\":false,\"adsDesktopHoldout\":false,\"adsHybrid\":false,\"adsMobile\":true,\"adsMobileHoldout\":false,\"bad\":false,\"index\":27},{\"__typename\":\"ParagraphBlock\",\"content\":[{\"__typename\":\"TextInline\",\"formats\":[],\"text\":\"Janis Kluge, a Russia expert at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, a research organization in Berlin, said it was \u201cdangerous to occupy your mind with this illusion\u201d of a potentially imminent cease-fire.\"}],\"textAlign\":\"LEFT\"},{\"__typename\":\"Dropzone\",\"adsDesktop\":false,\"adsDesktopHoldout\":false,\"adsHybrid\":false,\"adsMobile\":false,\"adsMobileHoldout\":false,\"bad\":false,\"index\":28},{\"__typename\":\"ParagraphBlock\",\"content\":[{\"__typename\":\"TextInline\",\"formats\":[],\"text\":\"\u201cI don\u2019t think 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